Ancient Clues Reveal the Deep Roots of Modern Water Crises

[fredgrennt]

Climate change is reshaping Earth’s water cycle, disrupting rainfall patterns and putting growing stress on cities and ecosystems. While some areas experience heavier rain and flooding, others are facing persistent droughts that threaten public health, damage economies, and fuel political instability. A striking example is Cape Town, South Africa, where a multi-year drought between 2015 and 2020 brought the city dangerously close to running out of water—a crisis officials labeled "Day Zero."

For years, scientists have debated whether such extreme events are caused by human-driven climate change or are part of natural climate variation. Some climate models point to a role for global warming, but models alone leave uncertainties.

“A model is not the real world,” says Tripti Bhattacharya, Thonis Family Associate Professor in Syracuse University's Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “So we looked back in time.”

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In a study recently published in Nature Communications, Bhattacharya and a team led by Earth sciences Ph.D. candidate Claire Rubbelke '25 examined preserved plant molecules found in sediment cores drilled off South Africa’s coast. These ancient molecules retain hydrogen isotopes from the rain that once fed the plants, offering a chemical archive of past climate conditions.

The team focused on the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, a period between 1.25 and 0.7 million years ago, when Earth experienced dramatic shifts in glacial cycles and atmospheric chemistry. Their analysis revealed that changes in global atmospheric circulation—including expansions and contractions of the Hadley cell, a major driver of tropical weather—led to periods of both wetting and drying in Southern Africa. These ancient drying patterns closely mirror the conditions experienced during Cape Town’s recent drought.

“When the climate changed significantly in the past, it led to drying patterns similar to what we saw with Day Zero,” Bhattacharya explains. “That suggests such events are tied to larger-scale climate change.”


Rubbelke notes that the findings raise important questions about the future of the region. “A major question I have is whether relatively short droughts—like the Day Zero event—might become more prolonged, or even permanent, in the future,” she says. “The sediment record shows these kinds of droughts have persisted for many years in the past.”

As a postdoctoral researcher, Rubbelke plans to extend this work by comparing sediment records from the eastern coast of Africa, aiming to build a broader picture of how rainfall has varied across the continent. She also hopes to investigate how these shifting precipitation patterns may have shaped early human evolution in regions like the Cradle of Humankind, where ancient environmental changes could have influenced hominin migration and survival.

Beyond its historical perspective, the study has modern-day implications. Regions such as California, which shares South Africa’s Mediterranean climate, could gain valuable insights from ancient drought patterns. According to Bhattacharya, understanding how climate models compare with the sedimentary record can help refine projections. “Models are our main tools for anticipating the future,” she says. “By testing how they reflect past events, we can improve them—and better prepare for what lies ahead.”